The CDMP web site is receiving a growing number of visitors. Over this quarter, almost 1,200 sessions (multiple ‘hits’ by a user with no more than 10 minutes between hits) were recorded. In the coming quarter, new CDMP documents will be available both in printed and web versions, which can potentially greatly expand their distribution.

The hazard mitigation planning workshop (section 3.4) was covered extensively by the local St. Lucia television stations. This workshop was also highlighted in the regional television news magazine Caribscope.

During this quarter, the CDMP undertook two studies, designed to answer outstanding questions about the Montego Bay hazard mapping activity. A public technical meeting will be held in Kingston on 31 October to discuss these studies and determine the final steps in the Montego Bay assessment. This technical meeting will include a discussion of land use guidelines that address the hazards identified in this study.

The first study was a statistical analysis of storm surge return times for the Montego Bay area. To conduct this study, CDMP consultant Watson ran the TAOS model for all 951 storms in the National Hurricane Center’s database to produce storm surge estimates for Montego Bay. A statistical distribution was then fitted to the annual maximum surge values. Using this statistical distribution, it is possible to estimate the surge level for various return periods and determine confidence levels for those estimates.

To verify the soundness of the TAOS storm hazard modeling in assessing coastal flooding for Montego Bay, CDMP contracted an independent review of the TAOS model results. An expert in the field of coastal engineering compared TAOS estimates of storm surge with records of three historical storms, which were provided by the Jamaica Institute of Engineers. Results of this review show that TAOS produces reasonable estimates of storm surge when compared to records of historical storms. This review was complicated by the age of the historical records and the informal methods used to collect surge information.

The results of the statistical study and the TAOS application review will be integrated in a new report on the storm surge hazard affecting Montego Bay.

Seismic assessment: A draft final report for phase I of the seismic assessment has been submitted. Geologic data sets, such as depth to bedrock, surface geology and ground water depth, are complete, as are the catalog of earthquakes for Jamaica and a seismotectonic model for the Kingston area. Still outstanding are the digital elevation model and a seismic attenuation model. The report and products of phase I are under review; a project plan for phase II of the seismic assessment will be developed as part of the review.

Landslide assessment: Digitization of the historical landslide inventory and the contour lines from the 1:50,000 topographic sheets has been completed. These data sets will be combined to produce the landslide hazard assessment. This work is scheduled to be complete by the end of next quarter.

Coastal hazard assessment: In a meeting between NRCA and the CDMP, it was decided that the coastal hazard assessment would be carried out at NRCA by CDMP with significant involvement of NRCA staff. NRCA will update bathymetry and topography data sets provided with TAOS, using its own GIS database. Responses to the Montego Bay technical workshop (see above) will be incorporated into plans for the KMA TAOS modeling exercise. The coastal hazard assessment will be completed by the end of the next quarter. The results of this coastal hazard assessment will be incorporated into a digital atlas, currently under development by NRCA.

Multi-hazard Mapping: During this quarter, a plan for development of the GIS database was completed. The base data sets, including the road network, hydrography and annotation, have been completed and added to the database. The landslide inventory and the seismic inventory data sets will be included in the database as soon they are completed by the Geology Department and Seismic Unit, respectively.

During this quarter, the base land cover and digital terrain model data sets to be used for the Belize River flood hazard model were created using data obtained from NASA and the US Geological Survey. The CAS2D flood model is being ported from a UNIX to a PC platform. Final work on the flood hazard model is expected to be completed in the next quarter, with flood map production from the model beginning in the first quarter of 1998.

Due to inadequate geotechnical information provided by the Government of Dominica’s engineering consultant, CDMP has been unable to proceed with development of design guidelines for the sea defense rehabilitation. The Government of Dominica is working with the CDB to resolve this issue.

Participants in the TAOS training held this past spring received a copy of the TAOS/L model in early June. The Caribbean Meteorological Institute (CMI), the base for the model in the Caribbean, has worked with this model and provided comments and suggested further enhancements. Another update to the model, which incorporates the ability to produce MEOWs from within the model, higher quality interfaces to other GISs and support for multiple data resolutions will be available in the final quarter of this year.

A regional workshop for TAOS users in the region is planned for December at the Caribbean Meteorological Institute. This purpose of this workshop is to familiarize users with applications of the TAOS model for hazard assessment and to determine regional priorities for applications of the TAOS model. The training will be conducted by CMI with assistance from CDMP.

National Level Mitigation Planning: During the week of 7–10 July 1997, the CDMP and CDERA/DERMS hosted the workshop Natural Hazard Mitigation Planning in St. Lucia. National disaster coordinators and national development planners from 15 Caribbean countries and dependent territories attended the workshop. The Hon. Kenny Anthony, Prime Minister of St. Lucia, gave the keynote address at the workshop’s opening ceremony. The goals of this workshop were to provide emergency coordinators and development planners with the basic information and training necessary to prepare hazard mitigation plans, and to provide a forum for improved coordination and communication between disaster coordinators and development planners within the region. Both of these goals were met. The link between development planning and disaster response and management was critical to the success of this workshop. The need for better communication and coordination between these two disciplines within the region was recognized this spring at the regional meeting of Ministers of Settlements and Housing in their regional action plan.

CDMP produced a mitigation planning manual to be used during and after the workshop. Topics covered in both the manual and the workshop include hazard identification; analysis of hazard probability, vulnerability and capability to respond; development of goals, objectives, policies, programs and benchmarks; and plan revision. During the workshop, participants divided into workgroups to develop sample mitigation plans based on the approach outlined in the planning manual.

As a result of this workshop, Grenada is using hazard information in the design of a major feeder road for the new national stadium and has added the national disaster coordinator to the national planning team. Also, the Government of Barbados has set up a national disaster mitigation subcommittee as one of its standing committees.

In response to a request from the Campeche, Mexico Emergency Operations Center, CDMP produced a version of the TAOS model, which includes data for both the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Mexico. CDMP provided model installation and training assistance at the Emergency Operations Center. All CDMP costs for this activity were covered by the Campeche center.

Planning has begun for a workshop on the use of GIS for natural hazard assessment and mitigation planning to be held in the coming year. This workshop is expected to focus on the use of spatial data for hazard assessment and the integration of hazard information assessments with social, demographic and development information to assess hazard vulnerability. Proposals and suggestions for this workshop are being actively solicited from GIS and hazards professionals.

The ADMD and the Red Cross co-sponsored a workshop called Safe Home and First Aid held July 12–13 in Santo Domingo. In addition, the ADMD sponsored two additional training courses to prepare a total of 70 new facilitators of the Community Disaster Preparedness Workshop.

Between July 1 and September 30, the ADMD was able to obtain 80 minutes of free television time and 215 minutes of free radio time to describe project activities and recommend preparatory and mitigative activities. Independently, quite a few radio stations regularly play the spots prepared by the ADMD regarding what to do before, during and after hurricanes and earthquakes.

A total of 19 meetings were held with heads of businesses, community and government organizations to raise awareness about the ADMD purpose and activities as well as to garner support, obtain information and establish contacts to facilitate ADMD activities. In addition 60 formal presentations regarding the D.R.´s natural hazards and recommended mitigative measures were given to a total of 2,917 people representing businesses, free enterprise zones, hotels, schools and communities nationwide.

The C&C Mechanism for the Private Schools did not meet during summer vacation, however, the ADMD held an active orientational campaign for over 900 children participating in 19 summer camp programs in July and part of August. The Compañía Nacional de Seguros supported this campaign. Their investment of US$21,500 provided packages for the children including coloring books, pens and brochures on what to do before, during and after hurricanes, earthquakes and floods. Since March of 1997, the ADMD has worked with the private schools of 19 cities nationwide as the ADMD´s contribution to the Hemispheric Vulnerability Reduction Program for the Education Sector.

This period, the ADMD trained an additional 70 facilitators from NGO´s nationwide and continued, through more than 30 NGO´s, an active campaign, which surpassed the goal established for the period by financing one hundred and seventy two (172) instead of thirty-six (36) Community Disaster Preparedness Workshops in high risk communities. At least 5,160 adults received orientation as to what a disaster is, how to identify vulnerability, how to identify the community's human and material resources, and - as a community - how to design a Community Emergency Plan.

The seventh Informative Bulletin covering project activities from June through August was sent by fax/modem during September to approximately 2,000 businesses and organizations. In addition, it was sent by e-mail to Central and South America, the U.S. and Europe and was well received.

The ADMD´s brochures on what to do before, during and after both hurricanes and earthquakes are distributed during the community workshops and during presentations to businesses, schools and other groups. In addition INTERNET addresses, a business survey on Contingency Procedures, the radio spot script of what to do before, during and after hurricanes and earthquakes, as well as information regarding the Armorgard products are also distributed during presentations nationwide.

During this quarter, the Community Initiatives Facilitator, Mr. José A. Norberto Pérez, analyzed and corrected twenty one project proposals, made 18 trips to supervise the seven projects in process, held work meetings each month with 29 institutions, NGOs and communities to obtain information, establish contacts, and to assist communities and NGOs with the proposal submittal process.

During the period, 9 proposals for community initiatives were reviewed by the C.I. Team, five of which were approved and initiated. The projects are briefly described as follows:

• 315 meter embankment construction in La Unión, Los Alcarrizos, S.D.
• Completion of a bridge initiated by the community in La Caguasa, Monte Plata
• Construction of a landslide containment wall in Barrio Norte, Villa Mella, S.D.
• Construction of a landslide containment wall in La Mina, Guaricanos, S.D.
• Construction of a flood prevention sand bag/cement containment wall in Batey Mata Mamon, San Luis.

The CDMP national coordinator completed his first year on the job at the beginning of this quarter. A Steering Committee meting was held in July, and the work plan presented by the coordinator was reviewed and endorsed by the Committee members.

Later in July, CDMP Manager Vermeiren, Evaluation Specialist Parker and OFDA Regional Disaster Advisor Worrell visited Haiti for a three-day monitoring mission. Progress with the establishment of three local disaster management committees in the Southwest was reviewed. A one-day meeting was held in Jacmel with the already established local committee, and with representatives of the other 2 committees that are in the process of being established in Jeremy and Les Cayes. Key elements for successful operation of the committees were identified as: (1) broad representation of community groups and institutions, including national NGOs operating in the community; (2) training of committee members; (3) development of guidelines for their operations; and (4) financial support for a local committee office and secretary. It was agreed that CDMP would continue to provide support for the first three elements. As an alternative for the fourth element, CDMP proposed that a local NGO assume the ongoing support functions of the committee, with some start-up support (training, equipment) from CDMP.

Other achievements during this period are:

Training: Two disaster simulation (tabletop) exercises were held in Jeremy and Les Cayes. A two-day disaster response training exercise was held in Les Cayes with 50 participants. The translation into French of the OFDA Train the Trainers Manual was completed.

Technical Assistance: The full draft report on the Vulnerability to Natural Hazards of Jacmel was reviewed with the local consultant, and recommendations were made for its completion. The CDMP National Coordinator produced guidelines for the operation of the CMGDs.

In the previous quarter, a ‘Proposal for Hazard Vulnerability Audits for Caribbean Electrical Utilities’ was developed and circulated to CARILEC and CDB for consideration. CDMP has received no responses to this proposal. It has been decided not to pursue this project until some action has been taken on previous vulnerability audits funded by CDMP.

The Caribbean Hotel Association (CHA) has recently completed a draft hazard preparedness, response and mitigation manual for use by its members, which is scheduled for production in the spring of 1998. CDMP has proposed to fund the development of a chapter on structural hazard mitigation for this handbook. This proposal was welcomed by the CHA. CDMP will assist the ADMD and the local Hotel Association (ASONAHORES) with translating the materials into Spanish.

The Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project (CDMP) and the Natural Hazards Project (NHP) of the Organization of American States are undertaking a joint project, with the aim of strengthening of the network of emergency shelters and schools, which are often used as emergency shelters. The objective of this project is to determine cost-effective retrofit options for existing shelters identified by participating countries, and to develop guidelines and processes to ensure that schools and other buildings are safe, when needed as shelters. Engineering standards for building retrofit work and guidelines for hazard-resistant new construction will be developed to support long-term sustainability of this work. Special emphasis will be placed on working with the school sector in this project. Training and technical assistance to educators, administrators, engineers and non-governmental organizations working with schools will provide the tools necessary to ensure that schools throughout the Eastern Caribbean are safe places, whether used in their standard role or as emergency shelters.

This project consists of two components. In the first component, CDMP will conduct a survey of 20 shelters designated by each participating country and determine guidelines for retrofitting. Countries participating in the shelter component of this project include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Participating countries can then apply for CDB loan financing for the retrofit work.

The second component will collect information on damage to schools that resulted from hurricanes Luis and Marilyn (1995) in Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica and St. Kitts and Nevis. This component will include training for agencies and organizations responsible for school construction. It will focus on the construction and maintenance of hazard-resistant schools and shelters through changes in policies, planning processes, investment projects and emergency preparedness. Since schools often are used as emergency shelters throughout the region, these two project components are intimately connected.

CDB has recently expressed interest in hosting a workshop on the incorporation of hazard mitigation into the project review and formulation process, with special emphasis on the cost-benefits aspects of mitigation. This workshop would follow up two previous workshops sponsored by CDMP at the CDB. The structure and schedule for this workshop will be developed in conjunction with CDB in the coming quarter. CDB has drafted a new policy paper for disaster assistance and will draw up a policy statement on disaster mitigation and preparedness as well.

To better understand the factors which influence damages to critical infrastructure in the event of a natural hazard, CDMP has begun a study of selected infrastructure projects in the region that have failed due to natural hazards. The project development, design, financing, construction and maintenance of these projects will be investigated and the development standards and decision making process will be analyzed to determine what factors contributed to the eventual failure of these projects. Results of this study will include a design manual for use by financing agencies and owners to reduce hazard risks, and a policy paper that discusses the institutional aspects, costs and benefits of integrating hazard mitigation into infrastructure design in the Caribbean. Work on this project is scheduled to be complete in the second quarter of next year.

An updated version of the Hurricane Resistant Home Improvement Program Toolkit was completed during this quarter. The update incorporates the lessons learned since the 1996 workshop, such as the minimum standards checklist for safer housing retrofitting. The toolkit will be printed and distributed widely to support replication of the informal housing retrofit program

CARITAS processed and scheduled for approval eleven new loan applications during this quarter. Procedures were established to ensure proper contracting and construction of retrofit work. These procedures include the signing of trained estimators to work with the program and a requirement of the borrower to sign construction work plans; costs of these extra steps will be included in the loan packages. Collections on past loans increased slightly this quarter. A handbook, entitled Basic Minimum Standards for Retrofitting, was completed and printed during this quarter. This handbook will be distributed in St. Lucia and other countries in the region undertaking safer housing work.

Loan activity in Dominica increased significantly during this quarter, with 29 applications approved and 27 loans disbursed. All applications were reviewed for compliance with minimum retrofit standards and accuracy of cost estimates. NDF Dominica supplied the materials and safer housing construction techniques for the building of a home in La Plaine. This brings the number of newly constructed homes in Dominica by NDFD using retrofit techniques to four.

NDF Antigua approved 15 loans over the past quarter. Only two of these were funded, however, because the rest exceeded the median income of Antigua. The other loans will be funded in the next quarter under an arrangement with CHF. Paul Bacchus of NDF Antigua visited NDF Dominica during this quarter to observe the safer housing retrofit and loan administration activities.

The Grenada National Development Bank has submitted a proposal for assistance from the CDMP. CHF will visit Grenada early in the next quarter to discuss the CDMP Hurricane Resistant Home Improvement Program with agencies and organizations involved in low-income housing work in Grenada. A final proposal will be developed and submitted subsequent to CHF’s November visit.

At its most recent meeting, the CDMP Technical Advisory Committee decided to pursue work with Credit Unions as another route for expanding awareness and appeal of the CDMP safer housing initiatives in the region. During the second quarter, CDMP met with a gathering of Credit Unions in Jamaica, during which a number of institutions expressed interest in participating in promotion of safer housing among its members. Work on this activity began during this quarter.

Under this project, two Credit Unions will be selected to participate in a pilot programme. CDMP will conduct training sessions for these institutions on the inclusion of hazard mitigation in home improvement loan programs. Preparation for the training will include a review of existing processes for the selecting, advising, inspecting and monitoring of loans within the participating institutions. Informational materials describing these loan programmes will be developed to inform Credit Union members and the media of the programme’s details. Upon completion of the training programme, the selected Credit Unions will implement safer construction loan programmes, under the supervision and support of CDMP. Finally the materials developed and lessons learned from the pilot programmes will be packaged for replication by other Credit Unions.

CDMP is continuing its support of UNCHS in the development of national building codes in the region. Upon prompting by CDMP, Grenada will be included in the next round of countries that receive assistance in developing a national code.

Dominica: The Dominica building code and accompanying guidelines have been printed and distributed for review. The review process will take 3–4 months and will end with a public seminar to address concerns that were expressed. The Town and Country Planning Act is being amended so that the new code can be mandated under the Act. The Physical Planning Unit, however, is already using the code in reviewing planing applications.

Requests for proposals for natural hazard mitigation training courses have been circulated to appropriate institutions throughout the region. A proposal from the Unit for Disaster Studies of the University of the West Indies, Mona campus, was received. This proposal outlines a university-level course, with the primary objective ‘to train students in the analysis and mangement of geohazards and risks, using integrated problem-solving approaches, and taking advantage of new technologies, such as Geographic Information Systems.’ This proposal will be assessed in conjunction with other proposals received in the future.

In July, the World Bank convened a meeting in Kingston to discuss a proposal for a reinsurance pool for the Caribbean. This meeting focused on the findings of the report of the Working Party on Insurance and Reinsurance and of a report commissioned by the World Bank on development of a reinsurance pool. The primary reason for interest in establishing a regional pool is to dampen the volatility of reinsurance rates in the region. Government representatives at the meeting expressed reservations in guaranteeing standby loans unless more detailed loss estimations are made available. The OAS offered to coordinate these more detailed studies.

Workshops in the use of GIS for specific planning applications will be conducted over the last four months of the year. These workshops will be for the staff of the Physical Planning Unit and other appropriate public and private employees. The first workshop, on the use of GIS for distribution networks was held at the end of this quarter. An additional training in the use of the IDRISI GIS package was added to this workshop. Workshop topics planned for the next quarter include road alignment, agriculture and forestry and economic. Copies of the GIS packages IDRISI and SPANS were delivered during this quarter, though hardware and driver problems have hindered migration to the new software. A radio and TV program has been defined for development during the next quarter. The local GIS sub-project that will be carried out in conjunction with this project has yet to be selected.

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